Although the calendar has been turned to Xiaoyangchun in March, when the ship market is warming up is still a big question mark.
Research by Clarkson, the authoritative ship market analysis agency, shows that the current price index for bulk carriers, tankers and container ships continues to drop and is close to the lowest level since 2004. The orders received by China's main shipyards are also bleak. So far this year, only 10 large shipyards have received new orders of 745,200 DWT from Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co., Ltd.
The Clarkson's new ship price index shows that in December 2011, January and February of 2012, it was 139, 138 and 136 points respectively. The index is falling, but it is not very fast.
In February of this year, the price of Capesize, Panamax and Handysize bulk carriers was $47 million, $27.5 million and $25.5 million, respectively, down from last month. In the same month, VLCC, Suez, Afra, Panama The price of new tankers was $97.5 million, $59 million, $51.5 million and $42.5 million, respectively. Compared with the previous month, the first three types of ships were slightly down; the prices of various container ships were also lower. It is worth noting that the price of the new ship has reached a position close to the bottom.
The "First Financial Daily" reporter found that the price of the Capesize bulk carrier and the 6,600 dwt container ship is now about 47 million US dollars and 67 million US dollars, almost the same as the price in 2004. From 2004 to 2008, it happened to be a rising cycle for the shipbuilding industry.
Some people in the ship industry said that if the current price continues to drop, there are two possibilities. One is to bottom out and the other is to continue down and unfathomable.
More people tend to the latter view. An analyst at Huaxin Securities said that he is not optimistic about the development of the entire ship market this year. Because from the Clarkson Freight Index in February 2012, it is still declining, currently at $8014/day, down 15.7% from the previous month and down 28.5% from the same period last year. This shows that there is a serious excess of capacity, and the shipowner is clearly still in a loss. In this case, they will not invest any more money to purchase the vessel, and will also make the shipyard unable to receive the order.
If there is no order, then the volume of new ships on the market will be very small, causing the buyer to continue to suppress prices, and the natural price will not come up.
In February 2012, new orders for bulk carriers and tankers and container ships were only 1.39 million DWT, 970 000 DWT and 60 000 DWT. Although the new orders for bulk carriers have increased from December 2011, they have fallen by nearly 60% year-on-year.
Up to now, China's top ten shipyards Dalian Shipbuilding Heavy Industry, Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding, Hudong Zhonghua, Jiangsu New Century, Bohai Shipbuilding, Guangzhou Shipyard International, Jiangsu Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Jiangnan Shipbuilding, Beihai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry and Shanhaiguan Shipbuilding Heavy Industry, only Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. has a new order of 745,200 DWT. In the whole month of February, the total number of new orders in China was only 1.29 million deadweight tons. The above analysts of Huaxin Securities also pointed out that the new singles of the foreign high bridge should not affect the overall income of the company.
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