With the declining macroeconomic operation, the monthly sales growth of various types of engineering machinery products has also been declining year-on-year, while maintaining a high growth rate of exports means that the domestic demand situation is more severe and the industry has entered the “winter†from “summerâ€. . By comparing macroeconomic indicators in 2004, 2005 and 2008, we saw that credit and fixed asset investment in 2008 were at a relatively low level; although the government has introduced investment plans to increase investment and stimulate the economy, even so, we measure the number of The growth rate of investment in fixed assets will still be significantly lower than in 2008. Therefore, if there is no significant improvement in the macro indicators in the first half of 2009, the domestic demand for construction machinery in 2009 will not be optimistic.
China's construction machinery export regions are mainly Asia, Europe and Africa. In 2007, the total export volume of regional exports in Asia, Europe and Africa accounted for 87.4% of the total; affected by the financial crisis, Europe was in an economic recession and developing countries The economy is also affected by the collapse of commodity prices such as crude oil and exchange rate fluctuations. Overseas market demand is facing downward risks. Our neutral forecast for construction machinery industry sales revenue in 2009 was RMB 286.6 billion, an increase of 3.80% year-on-year; optimistic forecasts for the year-on-year increase of 13.76%, and pessimistic forecasts for the year-on-year decrease of 5.51%.
It is estimated that the growth trend of sales volume of construction machinery in 2009 is likely to be similar to the situation of low and high after 05 years ago. With the government's increased investment and real estate market adjustment effect, as well as the United States and Europe's economy is clear, that the construction machinery industry's "spring" should not be very far away, optimistic judgments will come in the second half of 2009.
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