How to sell and sell ten million Chinese cars in a soft landing in July

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers recently released production and sales data for July. From January to July this year, domestic auto production and sales volume (wholesale) exceeded 10 million vehicles respectively, which was a year-on-year increase of more than 40%. However, domestic auto production and sales continued to decline in July. The production and sales volume reached 1,280,800 units and 1,244,000 units respectively, down by 7.54% and 11.90% respectively from the previous month, which represented an increase of 15.67% and 14.42% year-on-year, respectively. This means that the domestic auto market's production and sales volume has fallen month-on-month.

Dong Yang, Secretary-General of China Automobile Association, said that according to the sales volume in the first half of the year, this year's sales may exceed 16 million. Reporter believes that since 2009, automobile production and sales doubled over 13 million vehicles, which means that China Automobile Association expects This year, the auto market production and sales may increase by more than 20% compared to the same period of last year. Compared with the growth rate of up to 40% or more in the auto market in 2009, although it has declined, it takes into account the low base of production and sales in 2008 and the industry’s recognition of 40% or more. The growth of the automotive industry is an important factor that is difficult to sustain. This year's growth in automobile production and sales reaching 15% to 20% year-on-year has been a successful "soft landing."

However, the sensible decline in a madly growing market means pain to many manufacturers. For example, some manufacturers who set excessively high production and sales targets at the beginning of the year have begun to adjust their annual strategic targets. BYD Automobile has recently announced that it will target production and sales in 2010 from 80 percent. 10,000 units were adjusted to 600,000 units, which is a 25% reduction. This means that the grand goal of doubling the number of vehicles in one year is over. Similar to BYD, many domestic auto manufacturers are currently facing the production and marketing targets set at the beginning of the price war. , It is still a choice to cut production and sales targets. At present, the domestic automobile market is a high-end launched price shocks are being stored. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi has been hot between the killing, while the luxury brand's price reduction directly to the Accord, Camry, Magotan, etc. High-end cars have a certain downforce. From a certain point of view, this is a good thing for consumers. What kind of cars to buy from last year must wait, some cars have to increase their prices, and nowadays manufacturers, dealers demand consumption. The return of buyers into the store to buy from the short seller market to the buyer’s market is in fact the growth of the Chinese auto market from the mere reproduction of pure quantity to the growth of quantity, quality, service and brand. Rational change.

From the reporter’s point of view, the Chinese auto market must experience the pains of returning from ultra-high-speed growth to rationality and sustainable growth. In fact, according to the curve that developed countries’ auto markets have passed, the annual production and sales base will reach 10 million, and the growth in production and sales will increase. A slight slowdown. This means that even if this year's automobile production and sales will only reach 15 million vehicles, it will be completely acceptable. In the next five years, even if the Chinese auto market maintains an average growth rate of only 10% to 15% per year, it will be enough to disdain. World car scene.

At present, a suspense for the development prospects of the Chinese auto market is when the stimulus policies are withdrawn. Industry insiders believe that the driving effect of policies on the auto market has been significantly weakened. By the end of this year, the purchase tax for automobiles will be reduced, the autos go to the countryside, and trade-in policies will be changed. It is possible to withdraw from this background. This year, the auto market must eliminate the bubble and achieve a “soft landing.” In particular, we must be wary that during the “soft landing” process, some manufacturers and distributors may have been spoiled by policies. They will not be accustomed to pain and will continue to call for policies. In this regard, government departments should be rational and must maintain a rational return of the market. Manufacturers and distributors must reflect on their own quality, services, including marketing methods, to gradually adapt to the market competition environment The upgrade is worth noting. In the second half of the year, whether the 3,000-yuan energy-saving vehicle subsidy policy can play a more stimulating role and guide consumers to rational consumption. At present, there are chaos in the issuance of energy-saving vehicle subsidy policies. The dealers of the factory have been in troubled waters to reduce the pre-market discount and disguised the subsidies to their own pockets. Again, as the first batch of energy-saving automotive product catalogues were announced After that, the second batch of catalogs did not come out. Some manufacturers who could not stand the competitive pressure claimed that they would give consumers 3,000 yuan in advance to provide energy-saving vehicle subsidies. In fact, there is no national relevant department certification, the manufacturers' products are not necessarily Can enter the energy-saving automotive product catalog, this is equal to the policy's consumption-oriented role was "sanding" blinded.

The reporter believes that the withdrawal of stimulus policies such as the purchase tax reduction should be carried out in parallel with the automobile taxation reform, so that a more reasonable and smarter tax system can replace temporary relief policies and financial subsidies. For example, the reporter looked at a car dealership in Japan. The car's rear window is affixed with a very clear mark of energy consumption, emission labeling, which level of labeling and the amount of tax credits it receives, and how much it pays. This tax system is smarter. The stimulation of policy and the guiding role of consumption can be realized at low cost.