Since the beginning of the Year of the Ox, the domestic polyolefin market has been awaited. Since mid-March, the market has ushered in a hot market under Sinopec and PetroChina’s spare no effort. At present, all varieties of PP and PE have already recovered ten thousand yuan and have The momentum has not weakened. However, there are market participants who are very worried about the market outlook. On the one hand, although the deterioration of the external economic environment has eased recently, it is too early to say that the economic crisis has bottomed out; on the other hand, the bitterness of the market's sharp rise and fall in 2008 is still ripe. For now, the atmosphere of market speculation is worse than last year; finally, the new production capacity of millions of tons in the future is still daunting to everyone. In summary, it is not difficult to understand the confusion of market participants and the lack of confidence in the market outlook.
However, at this time, the government’s initiative has brought a glimmer of hope to the industry. Tax refunds for ethylene and propylene polymers with tariff numbers 3901100001, 3901100090, 3901200001, 3901200090, 3901902000, 3901909000, 3902100090, and 3902100010 have been applied since April 1, 2009. Upgraded to 13%. China's export of polyolefin products seems to remain unfamiliar to the industry. Imagine that when the domestic market fell to the bottom at the end of last year, the two major petrochemical groups had expanded into overseas markets in full swing, but in the end they were still thundery and little rain.
In 2008, China’s total polyethylene export volume was less than 80,000 tons. In view of the total output of polyethylene of more than 700 million tons in China last year, the proportion was only 1%, and a large part of it was modified or passed through international trading companies. Imported ethylene monomer is the main route for export processing, so strictly speaking, China's polyethylene product exports are almost minimal. For the total export volume of more than 500,000 tons in 2012, it is only the author's prediction based on the future domestic new production capacity and the comparison of domestic actual demand. How does the export of domestic polyolefin products go from scratch in just 3 years? What about the qualitative change? In addition to competitive product quality and stable market supply, whether it has a price advantage is also a top priority. Downgrading export tax rebates will undoubtedly be a powerful tool for domestic manufacturers to reduce their export costs and increase their price competitiveness. It is an opportunity for it to go out of the door and expand overseas markets; it is also an important means to digest future domestic new production capacity and resolve the contradiction between supply and demand.
Is the tax rebate the first stepping stone for Chinese polyolefin products? We will wait and see.
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